DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
South America Rejectswin 2:0series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Gior Dota Teamloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
South America Rejects
No games played over 6 months.
Gior Dota Team
Dark Willow
Asao · 1 game
Marsoften banned
kendallx · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
637 picks · 694 bans
Tiny
513 picks · 450 bans
Tusk
488 picks · 398 bans
Warlock
433 picks · 288 bans
Phoenix
412 picks · 373 bans
Shadow Demon
390 picks · 1084 bans
Puck
387 picks · 818 bans
Mars
380 picks · 563 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% South America Rejects
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% South America Rejects
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
South America Rejects 83%Gior Dota Team 17%
The model gave 83% on South America Rejects — the game was taken by South America Rejects.
Game 2prediction correct
South America Rejects 83%Gior Dota Team 17%
The model gave 83% on South America Rejects — the game was taken by South America Rejects.
Model check result
Model favoriteSouth America Rejects · 83%
Series resultSouth America Rejects 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2