Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Ukumariloss 1:2series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Qhaliwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ukumari
Undyingsignature
Gardick · 20 games
Puckoften banned
4nalog · 18 games
Clockwerksignature
Gardick · 17 games
Marcisignature
Thiolicor · 17 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Vitaly · 14 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Lumière · 14 games
Tusksignature
Thiolicor · 13 games
Tiny
Thiolicor · 12 games
Qhali
Hoodwink
MonHty · 2 games
Pudgeoften banned
MonHty · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Robo-Z · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
Hermit · 1 game
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Hermit · 1 game
Brewmasteroften banned
Hermit · 1 game
Broodmotheroften banned
Hermit · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
Luis · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
435 picks · 439 bans
Rubick
432 picks · 286 bans
Tiny
421 picks · 392 bans
Mirana
317 picks · 320 bans
Treant Protector
282 picks · 337 bans
Snapfire
255 picks · 134 bans
Ember Spirit
231 picks · 606 bans
Crystal Maiden
225 picks · 159 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength61% Ukumari
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Ukumari
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:29
Ukumari 56%Qhali 44%
The model gave 56% on Ukumari — the game was taken by Ukumari in 40:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenJP
JuggernautCucahook
EarthshakerAlone
Ember SpiritRobo-Z
Centaur WarrunnerH1j4ck
BroodmotherHermit
TinyKiri
SnapfireMonHty
Crystal MaidenYor
LichLuis
Game 2prediction missed14:43
Ukumari 56%Qhali 44%
The model gave 56% on Ukumari — the game was taken by Qhali in 51:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenJP
ClinkzCucahook
Death ProphetAlone
KunkkaRobo-Z
Dragon KnightH1j4ck
SnapfireMonHty
Keeper of the LightKiri
BroodmotherHermit
Crystal MaidenYor
Elder TitanLuis
Game 3prediction missed13:37
Ukumari 56%Qhali 44%
The model gave 56% on Ukumari — the game was taken by Qhali in 39:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the LightAlone
Drow RangerCucahook
SvenJP
Death ProphetRobo-Z
TimbersawH1j4ck
LycanHermit
RubickKiri
HoodwinkMonHty
DawnbreakerYor
Treant ProtectorLuis
Model check result
Model favoriteUkumari · 60%
Series resultQhali 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3