BTS Pro Series Season 14: ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Polaris Esportsloss 0:2series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 0:2
XERXIAwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Polaris Esports
Undyingoften banned
Force · 9 games
Linasignature
Mac · 8 games
Marcisignature
Boomy · 8 games
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 8 games
Lich
Eyyou · 7 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Force · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 5 games
Tuskoften banned
Boomy · 5 games
XERXIA
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
426 picks · 433 bans
Rubick
419 picks · 280 bans
Tiny
412 picks · 389 bans
Mirana
313 picks · 318 bans
Treant Protector
275 picks · 329 bans
Snapfire
250 picks · 133 bans
Ember Spirit
229 picks · 594 bans
Crystal Maiden
223 picks · 157 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 24%
Hero pool strength57% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total71% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:33
Polaris Esports 71%XERXIA 29%
The model gave 71% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by XERXIA in 34:08.
Game 2prediction missed12:39
Polaris Esports 71%XERXIA 29%
The model gave 71% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by XERXIA in 31:35.
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 71%
Series resultXERXIA 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2