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BTS Pro Series Season 14: Америка · BO2
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenloss 1:1
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:1
5RATFORCESTAFFloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Thunder Awaken

Snapfire
Snapfire
Matthew · 18 games
39%
Tiny
Tiny
DarkMago · 18 games
56%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 16 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 15 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Sacred · 14 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 14 games
43%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Sacred · 13 games
69%
Dazzle
Dazzle
Panda · 10 games
40%

5RATFORCESTAFF

Jakiro
Jakiro
albinozebra · 33 games
58%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
dnm · 10 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Speeed · 9 games
56%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
dnm · 9 games
78%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Speeed · 8 games
75%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
albinozebra · 8 games
63%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Speeed · 8 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Speeed · 7 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
425 picks · 430 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
412 picks · 280 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
409 picks · 388 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
310 picks · 317 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
274 picks · 324 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
250 picks · 132 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
225 picks · 592 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
222 picks · 155 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 52%
Hero pool strength57% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:7
Thunder Awaken 45%5RATFORCESTAFF 55%
The model gave 55% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 27:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSmiling Knight
50% · 138 games60% · 107 games
Naga Sirendnm
Naga Siren
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendAlone
45% · 120 games47% · 383 games
Death ProphetSpeeed
Death Prophet
Pangolier
PangolierILICH-
51% · 260 games54% · 219 games
Leshracred2
Leshrac
Clockwerk
ClockwerkAccel
53% · 178 games46% · 99 games
Jakiroalbinozebra
Jakiro
Tiny
TinyMichael
49% · 492 games45% · 380 games
RubickCTOMAHEH1
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct28:53
Thunder Awaken 44%5RATFORCESTAFF 56%
The model gave 56% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 1:02:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSmiling Knight
45% · 154 games49% · 107 games
Nature's Prophetdnm
Nature's Prophet
Mars
MarsILICH-
49% · 263 games51% · 318 games
Pangolierred2
Pangolier
Kunkka
KunkkaAlone
54% · 138 games52% · 92 games
Primal BeastSpeeed
Primal Beast
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenAccel
46% · 164 games48% · 257 games
RubickCTOMAHEH1
Rubick
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMichael
53% · 239 games54% · 184 games
Treant Protectoralbinozebra
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favorite5RATFORCESTAFF · 56%
Accuracy by game1 of 2