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DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Fly · 36 games
39%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 22 games
45%
Warlock
Warlock
Fly · 21 game
43%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 19 games
47%
Muerta
Muerta
Timado · 18 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Hellscream · 18 games
33%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
SabeRLight- · 17 games
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Hellscream · 15 games
60%

Zero Tenacity

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 48 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
MoOz · 40 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 39 games
69%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 36 games
61%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 36 games
44%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Worick · 28 games
57%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Nefrit · 28 games
54%
Tusk
Tusk
dEsire · 27 games
52%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
636 picks · 695 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
514 picks · 450 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
487 picks · 395 bans
50%
Warlock
Warlock
433 picks · 288 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
411 picks · 369 bans
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
389 picks · 1081 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
386 picks · 815 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
379 picks · 564 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 62%
Hero pool strength57% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head3 – 4
Model total52% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:15
Virtus.pro 46%Zero Tenacity 54%
The model gave 54% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 40:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaTimado
47% · 168 games46% · 246 games
GyrocopterKami
Gyrocopter
Void Spirit
Void SpiritAbed
47% · 206 games51% · 262 games
UnderlordNefrit
Underlord
Brewmaster
BrewmasterSabeRLight-
49% · 126 games56% · 377 games
Storm SpiritWorick
Storm Spirit
Phoenix
PhoenixFly
52% · 190 games51% · 131 game
RubickdEsire
Rubick
Tusk
TuskHellscream
43% · 452 games59% · 126 games
Treant ProtectorMoOz
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction missed39:16
Virtus.pro 48%Zero Tenacity 52%
The model gave 52% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 43:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaTimado
46% · 163 games49% · 163 games
Monkey KingKami
Monkey King
Void Spirit
Void SpiritAbed
49% · 181 game49% · 169 games
UnderlordNefrit
Underlord
Slardar
SlardarSabeRLight-
56% · 178 games55% · 342 games
Storm SpiritWorick
Storm Spirit
Hoodwink
HoodwinkHellscream
52% · 256 games50% · 78 games
VenomancerMoOz
Venomancer
Enchantress
EnchantressFly
47% · 96 games47% · 122 games
RubickdEsire
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 52%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2