Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Allianceloss 0:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PSG Questwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
PSG Quest
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 10 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Kaori · 6 games
Clockwerk
Kaori · 5 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Wuiter · 5 games
Morphlingoften banned
TA2000 · 5 games
Snapfire
Kaori · 5 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Wuiter · 5 games
Tiny
OmaR · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
425 picks · 429 bans
Rubick
409 picks · 280 bans
Tiny
407 picks · 387 bans
Mirana
310 picks · 316 bans
Treant Protector
274 picks · 321 bans
Snapfire
250 picks · 131 bans
Ember Spirit
224 picks · 590 bans
Crystal Maiden
221 picks · 155 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 82%
Hero pool strength64% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:33
Alliance 42%PSG Quest 58%
The model gave 58% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 39:19.
Game 2prediction correct8:30
Alliance 42%PSG Quest 58%
The model gave 58% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 28:24.
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 58%
Series resultPSG Quest 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2