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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Asterloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Tiny
Tinysignature
XinQ · 13 games
77%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 12 games
75%
Chen
Chensignature
y` · 11 games
91%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
y` · 9 games
78%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
y` · 9 games
89%
Razor
Razorsignature
Faith_bian · 9 games
78%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
XinQ · 8 games
88%
Marci
Marcisignature
XinQ · 8 games
88%

Team Aster

Tiny
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 31 game
61%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Fantasy · 15 games
80%
Puck
Pucksignature
Ori · 15 games
60%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 14 games
71%
Marci
Marcisignature
BoBoKa · 13 games
62%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
BoBoKa · 13 games
62%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Ori · 11 games
64%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Xxs · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
421 picks · 428 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
404 picks · 273 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
403 picks · 385 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
305 picks · 313 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
269 picks · 318 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
245 picks · 130 bans
48%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
220 picks · 154 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
218 picks · 585 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 80%
Hero pool strength57% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total61% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:30
LGD Gaming 47%Team Aster 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 54:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidshiro
54% · 129 games36% · 59 games
Drow RangerMonet
Drow Ranger
Kunkka
KunkkaNothingToSay
53% · 132 games43% · 102 games
DoomXxs
Doom
Tusk
TuskpLAnet
54% · 329 games48% · 282 games
PangolierXwy
Pangolier
Bane
Baney`
55% · 198 games49% · 199 games
RubickBoBoKa
Rubick
52% · 146 games
Treant ProtectorFantasy
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction missed20:12
LGD Gaming 44%Team Aster 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Aster — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 33:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageshiro
50% · 42 games33% · 59 games
Phantom AssassinMonet
Phantom Assassin
Pangolier
PangolierNothingToSay
61% · 317 games49% · 204 games
Ember SpiritXwy
Ember Spirit
Io
Ioy`
56% · 158 games46% · 206 games
Death ProphetXxs
Death Prophet
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonpLAnet
55% · 123 games45% · 99 games
Keeper of the LightBoBoKa
Keeper of the Light
44% · 72 games
DisruptorFantasy
Disruptor
Game 3prediction missed19:33
LGD Gaming 46%Team Aster 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Aster — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 1:02:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierNothingToSay
50% · 284 games50% · 109 games
BloodseekerMonet
Bloodseeker
Lifestealer
Lifestealershiro
55% · 50 games53% · 145 games
Dragon KnightXwy
Dragon Knight
Enchantress
Enchantressy`
50% · 134 games48% · 22 games
MagnusXxs
Magnus
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonpLAnet
47% · 71 game48% · 155 games
RubickBoBoKa
Rubick
49% · 108 games
Treant ProtectorFantasy
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 61%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3