Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Aster.Arieswin 2:0series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SSolitudeloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aster.Aries
Tuskoften banned
White丶Album · 7 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Xwy · 6 games
Phoenix
RedPanda · 6 games
Tiny
TK · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 5 games
Marcioften banned
生死 · 5 games
Ursaoften banned
Ulu · 5 games
Batrideroften banned
White丶Album · 4 games
Solitude
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Son GoKu · 3 games
Tuskoften banned
Undyne_ · 3 games
Alchemistoften banned
Undyne_ · 2 games
Dragon Knight
Son GoKu · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Son GoKu · 2 games
Pangolieroften banned
7e · 2 games
Primal Beastoften banned
7e · 2 games
Broodmotheroften banned
Son GoKu · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
418 picks · 427 bans
Rubick
402 picks · 271 bans
Tiny
402 picks · 384 bans
Mirana
305 picks · 311 bans
Treant Protector
267 picks · 317 bans
Snapfire
244 picks · 130 bans
Crystal Maiden
218 picks · 153 bans
Ember Spirit
217 picks · 582 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)20% vs 20%
Hero pool strength52% Solitude
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Aster.Aries
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:4
Aster.Aries 65%Solitude 35%
The model gave 65% on Aster.Aries — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 25:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LeshracWhite丶Album
Ember Spiritzone-
SlarkUlu
EnigmaSon GoKu
Broodmother生死
Treant ProtectorRedPanda
RikiTK
Game 2prediction correct32:18
Aster.Aries 66%Solitude 34%
The model gave 66% on Aster.Aries — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 34:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordUlu
Nature's ProphetSon GoKu
BatriderWhite丶Album
Puckzone-
Magnus生死
JakiroRedPanda
RikiTK
Model check result
Model favoriteAster.Aries · 77%
Series resultAster.Aries 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2