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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Flowloss 0:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Myth Avenue Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Flow

No games played over 6 months.

Myth Avenue Gaming

Tusk
Tusksignature
Hishge · 7 games
86%
Lina
Linasignature
xsilearn · 6 games
100%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Meracle · 5 games
60%
Tiny
Tiny
Hishge · 5 games
80%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
zeal · 4 games
100%
Mirana
Miranaoften banned
RR · 4 games
75%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Hishge · 4 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Meracle · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
416 picks · 427 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
402 picks · 384 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
400 picks · 271 bans
55%
Mirana
Mirana
304 picks · 311 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
266 picks · 316 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
244 picks · 130 bans
48%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
218 picks · 153 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
215 picks · 582 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 43%
Hero pool strength61% Myth Avenue Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Myth Avenue Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:30
Team Flow 43%Myth Avenue Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Myth Avenue Gaming — the game was taken by Myth Avenue Gaming in 57:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendUnknown-
39% · 102 games51% · 193 games
Leshracxsilearn
Leshrac
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMercury
48% · 321 game54% · 272 games
MarsMeracle
Mars
Broodmother
BroodmotherNevermine
54% · 103 games47% · 47 games
Dark Seerzeal
Dark Seer
Rubick
Rubickczy
50% · 306 games54% · 251 game
MiranaRR
Mirana
Marci
MarciTrazaM
54% · 218 games47% · 287 games
TuskHishge
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct5:25
Team Flow 44%Myth Avenue Gaming 56%
The model gave 56% on Myth Avenue Gaming — the game was taken by Myth Avenue Gaming in 32:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerUnknown-
50% · 72 games48% · 232 games
Linaxsilearn
Lina
Marci
MarciNevermine
55% · 225 games46% · 186 games
DoomMeracle
Doom
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMercury
48% · 206 games50% · 97 games
Lycanzeal
Lycan
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorTrazaM
57% · 186 games38% · 91 game
LichRR
Lich
Rubick
Rubickczy
58% · 253 games50% · 336 games
TuskHishge
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteMyth Avenue Gaming · 60%
Series resultMyth Avenue Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2