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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
No Runeswin 2:1
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Qhaliloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

No Runes

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Nuages · 3 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Nuages · 3 games
33%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Hyko · 2 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Mr.Jeans · 2 games
50%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Jupiter · 2 games
50%
Mirana
Miranaoften banned
Jupiter · 2 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mr.Jeans · 2 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Hyko · 2 games
100%

Qhali

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Hermit · 1 game
0%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Hermit · 1 game
0%
Doom
Doomoften banned
MonHty · 1 game
0%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Luis · 1 game
0%
Pudge
Pudgeoften banned
MonHty · 1 game
0%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
Luis · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
416 picks · 426 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
402 picks · 382 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
398 picks · 271 bans
55%
Mirana
Mirana
303 picks · 310 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
266 picks · 313 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
244 picks · 130 bans
48%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
217 picks · 153 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
213 picks · 581 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength60% No Runes
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% No Runes
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:11
No Runes 61%Qhali 39%
The model gave 61% on No Runes — the game was taken by Qhali in 46:39.
Game 2prediction missed16:29
No Runes 61%Qhali 39%
The model gave 61% on No Runes — the game was taken by Qhali in 36:30.
Game 3prediction missed13:32
No Runes 61%Qhali 39%
The model gave 61% on No Runes — the game was taken by Qhali in 42:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Runes · 61%
Series resultNo Runes 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3