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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Antarctic Penguinsloss 0:2
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 0:2
EHOMEwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Antarctic Penguins

Tiny
Tinysignature
Kaka · 16 games
63%
Puck
Pucksignature
Somnus · 12 games
75%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
FelixCiaoBa · 10 games
70%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
eGo · 9 games
67%
Lich
Lichsignature
xNova · 7 games
71%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Kaka · 7 games
29%
Viper
Viperoften banned
Chalice · 7 games
57%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Kaka · 6 games
50%

EHOME

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Lwwnb · 10 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Night · 8 games
63%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Night · 8 games
50%
Marci
Marcioften banned
xiaoyu154 · 7 games
14%
Mirana
Miranaoften banned
CatYou · 6 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
mks- · 5 games
40%
Tiny
Tiny
CatYou · 5 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Lwwnb · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
413 picks · 420 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
394 picks · 378 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
390 picks · 264 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
300 picks · 309 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
260 picks · 304 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
243 picks · 127 bans
48%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
213 picks · 153 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
206 picks · 574 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Antarctic Penguins
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Antarctic Penguins
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:32
Antarctic Penguins 66%EHOME 34%
The model gave 66% on Antarctic Penguins — the game was taken by EHOME in 30:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SireneGo
54% · 96 games46% · 130 games
Morphlingmks-
Morphling
Pangolier
PangolierAlaCrity
53% · 175 games54% · 112 games
Primal BeastNight
Primal Beast
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenXCJ
50% · 131 game43% · 137 games
Broodmotherxiaoyu154
Broodmother
Rubick
RubickFelixCiaoBa
50% · 145 games43% · 30 games
LionCatYou
Lion
51% · 138 games
DisruptorLwwnb
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed38:44
Antarctic Penguins 65%EHOME 35%
The model gave 65% on Antarctic Penguins — the game was taken by EHOME in 48:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightAlaCrity
51% · 144 games53% · 70 games
Nature's Prophetmks-
Nature's Prophet
Drow Ranger
Drow RangereGo
36% · 57 games47% · 198 games
Ember SpiritNight
Ember Spirit
Enchantress
EnchantressFelixCiaoBa
55% · 182 games49% · 49 games
Primal Beastxiaoyu154
Primal Beast
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenXCJ
51% · 143 games45% · 39 games
RikiLwwnb
Riki
59% · 170 games
MiranaCatYou
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteAntarctic Penguins · 74%
Series resultEHOME 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2