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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team DogChampwin 2:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Another NA Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team DogChamp

Invoker
Invokeroften banned
RCY · 11 games
45%
Marci
Marcisignature
yarintheslayer · 9 games
67%
Tinker
Tinkersignature
RCY · 8 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Bloody Nine · 7 games
71%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Bloody Nine · 7 games
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 7 games
43%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
StoneBank · 6 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
yarintheslayer · 6 games
67%

Another NA Team

Rubick
Rubick
Moonlight · 5 games
0%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Lies · 4 games
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
FeelinG · 3 games
0%
Luna
Luna
Argius · 3 games
0%
Mirana
Miranaoften banned
Lies · 3 games
0%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
RRL · 3 games
0%
Bane
Bane
FeelinG · 2 games
0%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Lies · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
413 picks · 419 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
393 picks · 378 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
390 picks · 264 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
300 picks · 309 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
258 picks · 304 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
242 picks · 127 bans
48%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
212 picks · 152 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
206 picks · 572 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 50%
Hero pool strength66% Team DogChamp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Team DogChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:18
Team DogChamp 64%Another NA Team 36%
The model gave 64% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 38:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerRCY
44% · 136 games58% · 76 games
UrsaArgius
Ursa
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainYuma
41% · 139 games50% · 106 games
Storm SpiritRRL
Storm Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterITALIANO GANGSTA
53% · 187 games52% · 254 games
Death ProphetUSH
Death Prophet
Techies
Techiesyarintheslayer
41% · 40 games49% · 67 games
SilencerThe Warden
Silencer
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorBloody Nine
56% · 174 games53% · 173 games
ClockwerkFeelinG
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct21:11
Team DogChamp 66%Another NA Team 34%
The model gave 66% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 25:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerRCY
48% · 174 games43% · 85 games
Shadow FiendArgius
Shadow Fiend
Morphling
MorphlingYuma
55% · 224 games48% · 247 games
SnapfireUSH
Snapfire
Beastmaster
BeastmasterITALIANO GANGSTA
54% · 303 games48% · 398 games
TinyRRL
Tiny
Pugna
Pugnayarintheslayer
52% · 151 game47% · 154 games
Treant ProtectorThe Warden
Treant Protector
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenBloody Nine
55% · 213 games50% · 181 game
EnchantressFeelinG
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DogChamp · 76%
Series resultTeam DogChamp 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2