DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Cloud Dawningloss 0:2series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Resiliencewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Cloud Dawning
No games played over 6 months.
Team Resilience
Clinkzoften banned
poyoyo · 2 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Echo · 2 games
Jakirooften banned
zzq · 1 game
Rubick
pLAnet · 1 game
Slardaroften banned
niu · 1 game
Techies
pLAnet · 1 game
Tidehunteroften banned
niu · 1 game
Treant Protectoroften banned
zzq · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
633 picks · 695 bans
Tiny
512 picks · 450 bans
Tusk
485 picks · 394 bans
Warlock
431 picks · 288 bans
Phoenix
407 picks · 363 bans
Shadow Demon
389 picks · 1078 bans
Puck
385 picks · 806 bans
Mars
379 picks · 563 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 60%
Hero pool strength60% Team Resilience
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Team Resilience
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:27
Cloud Dawning 24%Team Resilience 76%
The model gave 76% on Team Resilience — the game was taken by Team Resilience in 1:05:50.
Game 2prediction correct3:22
Cloud Dawning 24%Team Resilience 76%
The model gave 76% on Team Resilience — the game was taken by Team Resilience in 18:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Resilience · 76%
Series resultTeam Resilience 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2