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DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 0:2
series probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Ivorywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Skem · 24 games
42%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Tims · 24 games
50%
Mars
Marssignature
Force · 22 games
68%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Tims · 22 games
55%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
Force · 20 games
45%
Tusk
Tusk
Tims · 19 games
58%
Chen
Chensignature
Skem · 18 games
72%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Yopaj · 17 games
71%

Ivory

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Ken · 8 games
63%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Rupido · 6 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 6 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Teehee · 6 games
17%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Karma丶 · 5 games
40%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Teehee · 5 games
20%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Dric~ · 4 games
25%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Karma丶 · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
633 picks · 695 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
512 picks · 450 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
485 picks · 394 bans
50%
Warlock
Warlock
431 picks · 288 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
407 picks · 363 bans
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
389 picks · 1078 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
385 picks · 806 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
379 picks · 563 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 54%
Hero pool strength54% OG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total93% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:30
OG 78%Ivory 22%
The model gave 78% on OG — the game was taken by Ivory in 43:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyNatsumi
46% · 433 games44% · 295 games
TerrorbladeKarma丶
Terrorblade
Leshrac
LeshracYopaj
51% · 226 games51% · 378 games
Storm SpiritKen
Storm Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierTORONTOTOKYO
44% · 343 games53% · 203 games
TidehunterRupido
Tidehunter
Phoenix
PhoenixSkem
49% · 234 games52% · 338 games
HoodwinkDric~
Hoodwink
Lion
LionTims
49% · 95 games62% · 117 games
Treant ProtectorTeehee
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction missed12:28
OG 79%Ivory 21%
The model gave 79% on OG — the game was taken by Ivory in 39:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackTORONTOTOKYO
53% · 204 games55% · 64 games
LunaKarma丶
Luna
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNatsumi
50% · 252 games48% · 278 games
Void SpiritKen
Void Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierYopaj
46% · 237 games50% · 233 games
Primal BeastRupido
Primal Beast
Enchantress
EnchantressSkem
50% · 107 games47% · 395 games
WarlockTeehee
Warlock
Hoodwink
HoodwinkTims
54% · 279 games48% · 109 games
RubickDric~
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 93%
Series resultIvory 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2