Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Invictus Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 31 game
Dazzlesignature
Fantasy · 15 games
Pucksignature
Ori · 15 games
Marcisignature
BoBoKa · 13 games
Marssignature
Xxs · 13 games
Snapfiresignature
BoBoKa · 13 games
Enigmasignature
Xxs · 10 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Ori · 10 games
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
411 picks · 412 bans
Tiny
389 picks · 375 bans
Rubick
381 picks · 259 bans
Mirana
296 picks · 308 bans
Treant Protector
251 picks · 301 bans
Snapfire
240 picks · 124 bans
Crystal Maiden
211 picks · 150 bans
Ember Spirit
205 picks · 563 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)78% vs 44%
Hero pool strength57% Team Aster
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total88% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:12
Team Aster 88%Invictus Gaming 12%
The model gave 88% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 34:03.
Game 2prediction correct23:11
Team Aster 88%Invictus Gaming 12%
The model gave 88% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 47:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 88%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2