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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Aster.Ariesloss 1:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
EHOMEwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aster.Aries

Tusk
Tuskoften banned
White丶Album · 7 games
14%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Xwy · 6 games
17%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 5 games
60%
Marci
Marcioften banned
生死 · 5 games
20%
Phoenix
Phoenix
RedPanda · 4 games
25%
Rubick
Rubick
TK · 4 games
25%
Tiny
Tiny
TK · 4 games
50%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Ulu · 4 games
25%

EHOME

Disruptor
Disruptor
Lwwnb · 9 games
56%
Marci
Marcioften banned
xiaoyu154 · 6 games
17%
Mirana
Miranaoften banned
CatYou · 6 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 6 games
50%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
CatYou · 6 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
CatYou · 5 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Lwwnb · 4 games
25%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
mks- · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
407 picks · 412 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
387 picks · 374 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
380 picks · 258 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
296 picks · 306 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
249 picks · 300 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
239 picks · 123 bans
49%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
210 picks · 150 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
204 picks · 562 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)22% vs 44%
Hero pool strength56% EHOME
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% EHOME
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:12
Aster.Aries 49%EHOME 51%
The model gave 51% on EHOME — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 35:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaUlu
52% · 121 game51% · 47 games
Slarkmks-
Slark
Batrider
BatriderWhite丶Album
51% · 167 games47% · 71 game
Nature's Prophetxiaoyu154
Nature's Prophet
Magnus
Magnus生死
56% · 46 games45% · 159 games
TuskNight
Tusk
Phoenix
PhoenixRedPanda
50% · 92 games52% · 106 games
MarciCatYou
Marci
Riki
RikiTK
52% · 54 games48% · 97 games
Crystal MaidenLwwnb
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct20:57
Aster.Aries 49%EHOME 51%
The model gave 51% on EHOME — the game was taken by EHOME in 47:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerUlu
53% · 72 games51% · 232 games
Monkey Kingmks-
Monkey King
Batrider
BatriderWhite丶Album
48% · 195 games50% · 334 games
PangolierNight
Pangolier
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker生死
48% · 191 game49% · 319 games
Marsxiaoyu154
Mars
Tiny
TinyTK
49% · 652 games49% · 322 games
RubickCatYou
Rubick
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorRedPanda
51% · 233 games52% · 136 games
DisruptorLwwnb
Disruptor
Game 3prediction correct17:30
Aster.Aries 48%EHOME 52%
The model gave 52% on EHOME — the game was taken by EHOME in 28:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreUlu
48% · 29 games47% · 66 games
Phantom Assassinmks-
Phantom Assassin
Batrider
BatriderWhite丶Album
50% · 180 games49% · 309 games
Death Prophetxiaoyu154
Death Prophet
Snapfire
Snapfire生死
53% · 278 games54% · 342 games
PangolierNight
Pangolier
Phoenix
PhoenixRedPanda
46% · 121 game50% · 362 games
TuskCatYou
Tusk
Tiny
TinyTK
49% · 577 games51% · 106 games
Shadow DemonLwwnb
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteEHOME · 51%
Series resultEHOME 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3