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DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Warlock
Warlock
Riddys · 32 games
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 22 games
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Riddys · 20 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
pma · 20 games
40%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Riddys · 19 games
42%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Niku · 19 games
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gotthejuice · 17 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Niku · 17 games
53%

Nigma Galaxy

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 27 games
48%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
GH · 26 games
54%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
GH · 25 games
28%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 23 games
57%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
SumaiL · 22 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
rincyq · 21 game
52%
Muerta
Muerta
rincyq · 21 game
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 16 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
633 picks · 696 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
511 picks · 451 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
484 picks · 392 bans
50%
Warlock
Warlock
431 picks · 288 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
407 picks · 360 bans
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
389 picks · 1078 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
384 picks · 808 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
379 picks · 564 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 51%
Hero pool strength52% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total51% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed49:12
Natus Vincere 49%Nigma Galaxy 51%
The model gave 51% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 34:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
Muertagotthejuice
49% · 127 games55% · 460 games
Ember SpiritNo!ob
Ember Spirit
Slardar
Slardarpma
47% · 158 games48% · 66 games
Alchemistrincyq
Alchemist
Sand King
Sand KingNiku
45% · 162 games49% · 316 games
BristlebackDavai
Bristleback
Warlock
WarlockRiddys
47% · 279 games57% · 57 games
GrimstrokeOmaR
Grimstroke
Tusk
TuskDaze
47% · 378 games56% · 205 games
BaneGH
Bane
Game 2prediction correct31:12
Natus Vincere 52%Nigma Galaxy 48%
The model gave 52% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 40:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladegotthejuice
52% · 341 game44% · 321 game
PangolierNo!ob
Pangolier
Sand King
Sand KingNiku
52% · 206 games45% · 370 games
Dragon Knightrincyq
Dragon Knight
Primal Beast
Primal Beastpma
52% · 215 games48% · 292 games
SlardarDavai
Slardar
Hoodwink
HoodwinkDaze
53% · 415 games45% · 164 games
MuertaOmaR
Muerta
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorRiddys
58% · 85 games51% · 115 games
DazzleGH
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 51%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2