Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 1:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Entityloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Tinysignature
Saksa · 16 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Skiter · 15 games
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 14 games
Visagesignature
33 · 14 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 13 games
Doomoften banned
33 · 12 games
Naga Sirensignature
Skiter · 12 games
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 11 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
405 picks · 410 bans
Tiny
382 picks · 373 bans
Rubick
375 picks · 254 bans
Mirana
294 picks · 304 bans
Treant Protector
245 picks · 296 bans
Snapfire
235 picks · 121 bans
Crystal Maiden
210 picks · 150 bans
Ember Spirit
201 picks · 558 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 50%
Hero pool strength60% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total62% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:16
Tundra Esports 62%Entity 38%
The model gave 62% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 55:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 62%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1