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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 1:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:0
OGloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Skiter · 15 games
53%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Saksa · 15 games
73%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 14 games
79%
Visage
Visagesignature
33 · 14 games
79%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 13 games
77%
Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 12 games
58%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
Skiter · 12 games
83%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 11 games
36%

OG

Razor
Razoroften banned
ATF · 19 games
58%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Ceb · 18 games
61%
Puck
Pucksignature
bzm · 15 games
60%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Taiga · 13 games
77%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
bzm · 12 games
67%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 12 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Misha · 12 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ATF · 12 games
42%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
404 picks · 409 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
381 picks · 372 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
373 picks · 254 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
294 picks · 303 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
245 picks · 295 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
234 picks · 121 bans
48%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
210 picks · 150 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
201 picks · 556 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 53%
Hero pool strength54% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head6 – 3
Model total58% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:25
Tundra Esports 54%OG 46%
The model gave 54% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 1:00:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSkiter
48% · 152 games49% · 75 games
Naga SirenYuragi
Naga Siren
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightNine
48% · 133 games50% · 259 games
Storm Spiritbzm
Storm Spirit
Enigma
Enigma33
59% · 165 games51% · 173 games
TimbersawDM
Timbersaw
Phoenix
PhoenixSneyking
52% · 90 games46% · 344 games
RubickTaiga
Rubick
Tiny
TinySaksa
50% · 419 games45% · 108 games
SilencerMisha
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 58%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1