Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Mad Kingswin 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Balrogsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Mad Kings
Earthshaker
sl4d1n- · 10 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 8 games
Miranasignature
Thiolicor · 8 games
Tuskoften banned
4nalog · 8 games
Viperoften banned
Mjz · 8 games
Weaveroften banned
drakeel · 8 games
Silenceroften banned
Gardick · 7 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Lumière · 7 games
Balrogs
Rubicksignature
Demon · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 4 games
Jakiro
ShakaLord · 3 games
Razoroften banned
drakesh1t · 3 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 3 games
Silenceroften banned
ShakaLord · 3 games
Venomanceroften banned
drakesh1t · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
drakesh1t · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
404 picks · 409 bans
Tiny
381 picks · 372 bans
Rubick
373 picks · 254 bans
Mirana
294 picks · 303 bans
Treant Protector
245 picks · 295 bans
Snapfire
234 picks · 121 bans
Crystal Maiden
210 picks · 150 bans
Ember Spirit
201 picks · 556 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 70%
Hero pool strength65% Balrogs
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% Mad Kings
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:20
Mad Kings 47%Balrogs 53%
The model gave 53% on Balrogs — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 45:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death ProphetArzenT
Dragon KnightÑengoflow KELOKE
60% · 51 game
MorphlingDM
52% · 96 games
Marsdrakesh1t
51% · 81 game
RubickDemon
43% · 24 games
SilencerShakaLord
Game 2prediction correct38:15
Mad Kings 52%Balrogs 48%
The model gave 52% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 25:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BroodmotherArzenT
LinaDM
40% · 41 game
Snapfiredrakesh1t
38% · 28 games
TuskÑengoflow KELOKE
43% · 24 games
DawnbreakerShakaLord
40% · 11 games
Earth SpiritDemon
Model check result
Model favoriteMad Kings · 51%
Series resultMad Kings 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2