Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
YNTwin 2:1series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
RISE Esportsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
YNT
No games played over 6 months.
RISE Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
403 picks · 407 bans
Tiny
380 picks · 371 bans
Rubick
371 picks · 253 bans
Mirana
294 picks · 303 bans
Treant Protector
244 picks · 293 bans
Snapfire
233 picks · 120 bans
Crystal Maiden
210 picks · 149 bans
Ember Spirit
200 picks · 555 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 33%
Hero pool strength50% YNT
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total60% YNT
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:26
YNT 60%RISE Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on YNT — the game was taken by RISE Esports in 35:22.
Game 2prediction missed29:36
YNT 60%RISE Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on YNT — the game was taken by RISE Esports in 55:07.
Game 3prediction missed24:17
YNT 60%RISE Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on YNT — the game was taken by RISE Esports in 32:58.
Model check result
Model favoriteYNT · 60%
Series resultYNT 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3