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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Tiny
Tinysignature
XinQ · 13 games
77%
Chen
Chensignature
y` · 11 games
91%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 11 games
73%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
y` · 9 games
78%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
y` · 9 games
89%
Razor
Razorsignature
Faith_bian · 9 games
78%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
XinQ · 8 games
88%
Marci
Marcisignature
XinQ · 8 games
88%

Xtreme Gaming

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Paparazi · 18 games
72%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Paparazi · 10 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Pyw · 8 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Pyw · 8 games
50%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
lou · 7 games
43%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Pyw · 7 games
57%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
ELeVeN · 6 games
33%
Lina
Linasignature
Paparazi · 6 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
402 picks · 406 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
379 picks · 368 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
368 picks · 252 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
293 picks · 302 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
241 picks · 293 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
231 picks · 120 bans
48%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
210 picks · 147 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
200 picks · 551 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 56%
Hero pool strength58% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total67% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:30
LGD Gaming 59%Xtreme Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 42:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
Linashiro
49% · 113 games52% · 134 games
MorphlingGhost
Morphling
Tusk
TuskNothingToSay
53% · 165 games40% · 94 games
Nature's ProphetPaparazi
Nature's Prophet
Weaver
WeaverpLAnet
51% · 59 games50% · 48 games
MagnusJT-
Magnus
Undying
Undyingy`
52% · 105 games50% · 75 games
Shadow ShamanPyw
Shadow Shaman
53% · 91 game
PhoenixDy
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct29:8
LGD Gaming 62%Xtreme Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 32:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone Druidshiro
54% · 34 games43% · 141 game
DoomJT-
Doom
Pangolier
PangolierNothingToSay
55% · 314 games50% · 85 games
Shadow FiendGhost
Shadow Fiend
Enchantress
Enchantressy`
53% · 197 games49% · 438 games
TinyPaparazi
Tiny
Rubick
RubickpLAnet
51% · 288 games57% · 39 games
RikiPyw
Riki
39% · 130 games
GrimstrokeDy
Grimstroke
Game 3prediction correct30:29
LGD Gaming 59%Xtreme Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 54:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinker
TinkerNothingToSay
50% · 6 games45% · 56 games
Drow RangerGhost
Drow Ranger
Lina
Linashiro
47% · 210 games48% · 75 games
InvokerPaparazi
Invoker
Hoodwink
HoodwinkpLAnet
50% · 152 games44% · 45 games
MagnusJT-
Magnus
Treant Protector
Treant Protectory`
54% · 156 games52% · 230 games
RubickPyw
Rubick
60% · 118 games
UndyingDy
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 67%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3