Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydrawin 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
cybercatsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hydra
Tusksignature
Lefitan · 21 game
Disruptorsignature
HappyDyurara · 12 games
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 11 games
Batridersignature
Worick · 8 games
Lycansignature
Cloud · 8 games
Silencersignature
HappyDyurara · 8 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Lefitan · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 5 games
cybercats
Dazzlesignature
Hduo · 15 games
Clockwerk
Hduo · 14 games
Hoodwink
Fezor · 13 games
Marcioften banned
Hduo · 12 games
Visageoften banned
DkFogas · 12 games
Lycanoften banned
DkFogas · 10 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Egor · 9 games
Skywrath Mage
Fezor · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
402 picks · 406 bans
Tiny
379 picks · 368 bans
Rubick
368 picks · 252 bans
Mirana
293 picks · 302 bans
Treant Protector
241 picks · 293 bans
Snapfire
231 picks · 120 bans
Crystal Maiden
210 picks · 147 bans
Ember Spirit
200 picks · 551 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 46%
Hero pool strength61% Hydra
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total68% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:19
Hydra 61%cybercats 39%
The model gave 61% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 36:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendKami
DoomAlberkaaa
BeastmasterCloud
Lycanzenica
SnapfireWorick
PangolierChira JUNIOR
RubickLefitan
Miranaforcemajor
Treant ProtectorHappyDyurara
Techiesjesv
Game 2prediction correct37:38
Hydra 63%cybercats 37%
The model gave 63% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 58:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidKami
Drow RangerAlberkaaa
InvokerWorick
BatriderChira JUNIOR
SnapfireCloud
Doomzenica
Treant ProtectorLefitan
Techiesjesv
SilencerHappyDyurara
Clockwerkforcemajor
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 68%
Series resultHydra 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2