BTS Pro Series Season 14: ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Polaris Esportswin 2:0series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Reaperloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Polaris Esports
Undyingoften banned
Force · 9 games
Linasignature
Mac · 8 games
Marcisignature
Boomy · 8 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Force · 7 games
Lich
Eyyou · 6 games
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 5 games
Tuskoften banned
Boomy · 5 games
Viperoften banned
Force · 5 games
Reaper
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
402 picks · 406 bans
Tiny
379 picks · 368 bans
Rubick
368 picks · 252 bans
Mirana
293 picks · 302 bans
Treant Protector
241 picks · 293 bans
Snapfire
231 picks · 120 bans
Crystal Maiden
210 picks · 147 bans
Ember Spirit
200 picks · 551 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 22%
Hero pool strength57% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Polaris Esports 86%Reaper 14%
The model gave 86% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports.
Game 2prediction correct
Polaris Esports 86%Reaper 14%
The model gave 86% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports.
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 86%
Series resultPolaris Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2