Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs predictionAPAntarctic Penguinswin 2:0
series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SSolitudeloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Antarctic Penguins
Tinysignature
Kaka · 15 games
Pucksignature
Somnus · 12 games
Shadow Fiendsignature
eGo · 9 games
Rubicksignature
FelixCiaoBa · 8 games
Lichsignature
xNova · 7 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Kaka · 7 games
Viperoften banned
Chalice · 7 games
Earthshaker
Kaka · 6 games
Solitude
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Son GoKu · 3 games
Tuskoften banned
Undyne_ · 3 games
Alchemistoften banned
Undyne_ · 2 games
Dragon Knight
Son GoKu · 2 games
Pangolieroften banned
7e · 2 games
Primal Beastoften banned
7e · 2 games
Broodmotheroften banned
Son GoKu · 1 game
Dark Seeroften banned
Son GoKu · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
402 picks · 404 bans
Tiny
378 picks · 368 bans
Rubick
366 picks · 252 bans
Mirana
293 picks · 301 bans
Treant Protector
241 picks · 291 bans
Snapfire
231 picks · 120 bans
Crystal Maiden
209 picks · 147 bans
Ember Spirit
200 picks · 550 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 22%
Hero pool strength61% Antarctic Penguins
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% Antarctic Penguins
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:31
Antarctic Penguins 78%Solitude 22%
The model gave 78% on Antarctic Penguins — the game was taken by Antarctic Penguins in 41:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
InvokerAlaCrity
NecrophosSon GoKu
SpectreeGo
TinyFelixCiaoBa
RubickXCJ
Game 2prediction correct45:17
Antarctic Penguins 79%Solitude 21%
The model gave 79% on Antarctic Penguins — the game was taken by Antarctic Penguins in 29:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaeGo
Nature's ProphetSon GoKu
BatriderAlaCrity
RubickFelixCiaoBa
Crystal MaidenXCJ
Model check result
Model favoriteAntarctic Penguins · 92%
Series resultAntarctic Penguins 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2