Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 0:1series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Entitywin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Chaos Knightoften banned
Skiter · 15 games
Tinysignature
Saksa · 15 games
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 14 games
Visagesignature
33 · 14 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 13 games
Doomoften banned
33 · 12 games
Naga Sirensignature
Skiter · 12 games
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 11 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
402 picks · 403 bans
Tiny
377 picks · 368 bans
Rubick
364 picks · 252 bans
Mirana
293 picks · 301 bans
Treant Protector
239 picks · 290 bans
Snapfire
230 picks · 120 bans
Crystal Maiden
209 picks · 147 bans
Ember Spirit
199 picks · 550 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength60% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total63% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:34
Tundra Esports 63%Entity 37%
The model gave 63% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Entity in 29:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 63%
Series resultEntity 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1