Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 1:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:0
OGloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Chaos Knightoften banned
Skiter · 15 games
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 14 games
Tinysignature
Saksa · 14 games
Visagesignature
33 · 14 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 13 games
Doomoften banned
33 · 12 games
Naga Sirensignature
Skiter · 12 games
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 11 games
OG
Razoroften banned
ATF · 19 games
Earthshakersignature
Ceb · 18 games
Pucksignature
bzm · 15 games
Elder Titansignature
Taiga · 13 games
Ember Spiritsignature
bzm · 12 games
Invokersignature
bzm · 12 games
Snapfire
Misha · 12 games
Timbersawoften banned
ATF · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
402 picks · 401 bans
Tiny
375 picks · 368 bans
Rubick
363 picks · 251 bans
Mirana
292 picks · 300 bans
Treant Protector
239 picks · 288 bans
Snapfire
228 picks · 120 bans
Crystal Maiden
208 picks · 146 bans
Ember Spirit
197 picks · 550 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 54%
Hero pool strength53% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head5 – 3
Model total59% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:13
Tundra Esports 56%OG 44%
The model gave 56% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 43:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaSkiter
Drow RangerYuragi
Storm SpiritNine
Batriderbzm
Enigma33
AxeDM
TinySaksa
RubickTaiga
SvenSneyking
UndyingMisha
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 59%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1