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DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:1
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Rune Eatersloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 42 games
71%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 41 game
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 40 games
70%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
RESPECT · 37 games
49%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
slimeyao · 37 games
68%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
erase · 33 games
61%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Bb3px · 31 game
58%
Tiny
Tiny
erase · 30 games
57%

Rune Eaters

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
ani-san · 53 games
66%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
monodrama · 46 games
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 40 games
48%
Tusk
Tusk
ani-san · 36 games
56%
Tiny
Tiny
ani-san · 33 games
39%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
monodrama · 31 game
81%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 30 games
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Ankou · 27 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
633 picks · 696 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
511 picks · 451 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
484 picks · 388 bans
50%
Warlock
Warlock
431 picks · 288 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
407 picks · 354 bans
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
388 picks · 1075 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
382 picks · 806 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
379 picks · 564 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% HULIGANI
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total76% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:33
HULIGANI 66%Rune Eaters 34%
The model gave 66% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 36:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierMirage
49% · 220 games51% · 113 games
Doomyowaai
Doom
Muerta
Muertassnovv1
50% · 152 games47% · 169 games
Void SpiritEthereal
Void Spirit
Underlord
UnderlordCorrupted
55% · 150 games42% · 118 games
BrewmasterAnkou
Brewmaster
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorRESPECT
53% · 54 games50% · 46 games
VenomancerKidaro
Venomancer
Rubick
Rubicksayuw
53% · 78 games53% · 208 games
Ringmasterani-san
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction correct31:29
HULIGANI 64%Rune Eaters 36%
The model gave 64% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 46:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
Muertassnovv1
47% · 150 games56% · 166 games
Doomyowaai
Doom
Beastmaster
BeastmasterCorrupted
46% · 241 game48% · 265 games
Queen of PainEthereal
Queen of Pain
Pangolier
PangolierMirage
46% · 265 games53% · 282 games
SlardarAnkou
Slardar
Ringmaster
RingmasterRESPECT
44% · 183 games50% · 32 games
Ioani-san
Io
Rubick
Rubicksayuw
49% · 83 games60% · 177 games
PugnaKidaro
Pugna
Game 3prediction correct43:23
HULIGANI 64%Rune Eaters 36%
The model gave 64% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 45:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursassnovv1
51% · 181 game48% · 152 games
Doomyowaai
Doom
Puck
PuckMirage
47% · 334 games50% · 233 games
TidehunterAnkou
Tidehunter
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCorrupted
51% · 331 game51% · 74 games
HuskarEthereal
Huskar
Venomancer
VenomancerRESPECT
53% · 53 games50% · 335 games
Shadow Demonani-san
Shadow Demon
Rubick
Rubicksayuw
53% · 87 games49% · 192 games
PugnaKidaro
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 76%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3