DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Roar Gamingloss 0:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MDMideng Dreamerwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Roar Gaming
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulu · 14 games
Jakirooften banned
RedPanda · 11 games
Tusk
CatYou · 11 games
Disruptorsignature
RedPanda · 10 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
生死 · 7 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 7 games
Mideng Dreamer
Alchemistoften banned
lou · 1 game
Largooften banned
Freeze · 1 game
Void Spirit
7e · 1 game
Warlock
Hara · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
632 picks · 696 bans
Tiny
511 picks · 451 bans
Tusk
483 picks · 388 bans
Warlock
431 picks · 288 bans
Phoenix
406 picks · 349 bans
Shadow Demon
387 picks · 1070 bans
Puck
382 picks · 802 bans
Mars
379 picks · 560 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength64% Mideng Dreamer
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total62% Roar Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:29
Roar Gaming 54%Mideng Dreamer 46%
The model gave 54% on Roar Gaming — the game was taken by Mideng Dreamer in 34:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Voidukiyo
MuertaYumeyume
Ember SpiritButterflyEffect
DoomBEYOND
Pangolier生死
Bristleback7e
RubickCatYou
Treant ProtectorUndyne_
VenomancerLOyd
Game 2prediction missed26:29
Roar Gaming 56%Mideng Dreamer 44%
The model gave 56% on Roar Gaming — the game was taken by Mideng Dreamer in 41:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladeukiyo
Queen of PainYumeyume
LinaButterflyEffect
Beastmaster7e
Slardar生死
BristlebackBEYOND
HoodwinkCatYou
RingmasterUndyne_
JakiroLOyd
Model check result
Model favoriteRoar Gaming · 62%
Series resultMideng Dreamer 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2