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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 1:0
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:0
OGloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Skiter · 15 games
53%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 14 games
79%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Saksa · 14 games
71%
Visage
Visagesignature
33 · 14 games
79%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 13 games
77%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 11 games
36%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
Skiter · 11 games
91%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Nine · 11 games
82%

OG

Razor
Razoroften banned
ATF · 19 games
58%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Ceb · 18 games
61%
Puck
Pucksignature
bzm · 15 games
60%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Taiga · 13 games
77%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 12 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ATF · 12 games
42%
Tiny
Tiny
Taiga · 12 games
50%
Chen
Chensignature
Taiga · 11 games
91%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
402 picks · 399 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
372 picks · 368 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
361 picks · 248 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
292 picks · 298 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
237 picks · 285 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
226 picks · 119 bans
49%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
208 picks · 145 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
196 picks · 547 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 55%
Hero pool strength54% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total60% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:9
Tundra Esports 55%OG 45%
The model gave 55% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 36:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doom33
56% · 133 games51% · 74 games
UrsaYuragi
Ursa
Lina
LinaSkiter
53% · 142 games47% · 98 games
Keeper of the Lightbzm
Keeper of the Light
Pangolier
PangolierNine
48% · 248 games53% · 205 games
SnapfireDM
Snapfire
Lion
LionSaksa
37% · 32 games48% · 169 games
HoodwinkMisha
Hoodwink
Earthshaker
EarthshakerSneyking
42% · 49 games56% · 58 games
Naga SirenTaiga
Naga Siren
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 60%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1