Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Keyd Starswin 1:0series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Infinity Esportsloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Keyd Stars
Snapfiresignature
KJ · 20 games
Tusksignature
Kingrd · 13 games
Medusasignature
hFn · 10 games
Pucksignature
Sooths · 9 games
Tinysignature
Kingrd · 9 games
Visagesignature
Tavo · 9 games
Marcisignature
Kingrd · 8 games
Techiessignature
FCR · 8 games
Infinity Esports
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mr.Jeans · 7 games
Morphlingsignature
mini-` · 7 games
Enchantressoften banned
Nuages · 6 games
Rubicksignature
Genek · 6 games
Snapfiresignature
Jupiter · 6 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Nuages · 6 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Hyko · 5 games
Crystal Maiden
Prada · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
402 picks · 399 bans
Tiny
372 picks · 368 bans
Rubick
361 picks · 248 bans
Mirana
292 picks · 298 bans
Treant Protector
237 picks · 285 bans
Snapfire
226 picks · 119 bans
Crystal Maiden
208 picks · 145 bans
Ember Spirit
196 picks · 547 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Keyd Stars
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total63% Infinity Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed43:17
Keyd Stars 45%Infinity Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Infinity Esports — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 45:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingCostabile
LinaJP
LycanTavo
Shadow FiendLeostyle
Tiny4dr
TidehunterFrank
RubickKingrd
EnchantressPrada
Spirit BreakerKJ
MarsGenek
Model check result
Model favoriteInfinity Esports · 63%
Series resultKeyd Stars 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1