Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Darksideloss 0:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
One Movewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Darkside
No games played over 6 months.
One Move
Tiny
Gilgir · 21 game
Miranaoften banned
Panto · 17 games
Rubick
Gilgir · 16 games
Timbersawoften banned
AfterLife · 16 games
Tusk
Ainkrad · 15 games
Pangoliersignature
mellojul · 14 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 12 games
Chensignature
Panto · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
402 picks · 399 bans
Tiny
370 picks · 368 bans
Rubick
361 picks · 247 bans
Mirana
292 picks · 298 bans
Treant Protector
235 picks · 285 bans
Snapfire
226 picks · 118 bans
Crystal Maiden
208 picks · 145 bans
Ember Spirit
196 picks · 545 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 48%
Hero pool strength54% One Move
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total55% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:25
Darkside 45%One Move 55%
The model gave 55% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 45:27.
Game 2prediction correct15:32
Darkside 45%One Move 55%
The model gave 55% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 34:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 55%
Series resultOne Move 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2