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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:0
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Blacklist Internationalloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Mikoto · 15 games
60%
Tiny
Tiny
Xepher · 13 games
38%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Hyde · 12 games
50%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Q · 12 games
42%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
kpii · 11 games
45%
Tusk
Tusk
Q · 11 games
36%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 10 games
80%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Q · 10 games
60%

Blacklist International

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
401 picks · 398 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
370 picks · 367 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
359 picks · 247 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
292 picks · 296 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
234 picks · 284 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
226 picks · 118 bans
49%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
208 picks · 145 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
196 picks · 543 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 55%
Hero pool strength52% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total57% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:5
Talon Esports 57%Blacklist International 43%
The model gave 57% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 39:20.
Game 2prediction correct28:7
Talon Esports 57%Blacklist International 43%
The model gave 57% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 30:49.
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 57%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2