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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Bleed Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team SMGwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Bleed Esports

Undying
Undyingoften banned
Kuku · 11 games
55%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Whitemon · 10 games
60%
Venomancer
Venomanceroften banned
Xepher · 10 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Topson · 9 games
78%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Kuku · 9 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
PlayHard · 9 games
33%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Topson · 8 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Xepher · 7 games
43%

Team SMG

Bane
Banesignature
Poloson · 10 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Moon · 10 games
70%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
MidOne · 9 games
44%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
AhFu · 9 games
78%
Undying
Undyingsignature
AhFu · 8 games
63%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Moon · 7 games
71%
Marci
Marcioften banned
MidOne · 6 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
MidOne · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
400 picks · 397 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
367 picks · 367 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
358 picks · 246 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
290 picks · 296 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
234 picks · 282 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
226 picks · 118 bans
49%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
208 picks · 145 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
195 picks · 541 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 45%
Hero pool strength53% Team SMG
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total62% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:13
Bleed Esports 45%Team SMG 55%
The model gave 55% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 37:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenJaCkky
58% · 68 games51% · 118 games
Nature's ProphetMidOne
Nature's Prophet
Tiny
TinyPlayHard
47% · 419 games49% · 144 games
Keeper of the LightMoon
Keeper of the Light
Mirana
MiranaDuBu
52% · 181 game46% · 267 games
RubickBoomy
Rubick
45% · 139 games
UndyingAhFu
Undying
Game 2prediction correct13:22
Bleed Esports 43%Team SMG 57%
The model gave 57% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 27:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritJaCkky
51% · 233 games58% · 38 games
HuskarMoon
Huskar
Mirana
MiranaPlayHard
48% · 194 games49% · 100 games
Keeper of the LightMidOne
Keeper of the Light
Undying
UndyingDuBu
48% · 123 games51% · 372 games
TinyBoomy
Tiny
46% · 40 games
OmniknightAhFu
Omniknight
Game 3prediction correct25:44
Bleed Esports 41%Team SMG 59%
The model gave 59% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 44:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperJaCkky
46% · 123 games54% · 105 games
BeastmasterMidOne
Beastmaster
Dark Willow
Dark WillowPlayHard
54% · 55 games47% · 120 games
TuskMoon
Tusk
Clockwerk
ClockwerkDuBu
46% · 339 games51% · 227 games
TinyBoomy
Tiny
58% · 65 games
UndyingAhFu
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 62%
Series resultTeam SMG 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3