Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportswin 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LBLucky Birdloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
B8 Esports
Snapfire
Alexxo · 18 games
Marcioften banned
Alexxo · 11 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Sammyboy · 9 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
YamSun · 9 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Dendi · 8 games
Chen
Sammyboy · 6 games
Rubick
MoOz · 6 games
Silenceroften banned
Sammyboy · 6 games
Lucky Bird
Bloodseekeroften banned
Rises · 6 games
Clockwerk
FrancisLee · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
BlackSoul · 5 games
Hoodwink
Wij · 5 games
Tiny
BlackSoul · 5 games
Ursaoften banned
Rises · 5 games
Rubick
Wij · 4 games
Tusk
BlackSoul · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
403 picks · 396 bans
Tiny
368 picks · 365 bans
Rubick
356 picks · 244 bans
Mirana
292 picks · 294 bans
Treant Protector
232 picks · 279 bans
Snapfire
224 picks · 118 bans
Crystal Maiden
207 picks · 147 bans
Ember Spirit
196 picks · 536 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 23%
Hero pool strength59% B8 Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% B8 Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:17
B8 Esports 53%Lucky Bird 47%
The model gave 53% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 34:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckDendi
Storm SpiritBlackSoul
Troll WarlordStoneBank
UrsaRises
Nature's ProphetFunn1k
Treant ProtectorYadomi
RikiMoOz
TinyCrawler
DisruptorLodine
Game 2prediction correct27:6
B8 Esports 53%Lucky Bird 47%
The model gave 53% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 25:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaStoneBank
Troll WarlordRises
Primal BeastDendi
LeshracBlackSoul
BroodmotherFunn1k
SnapfireYadomi
EarthshakerMoOz
WindrangerCrawler
EnchantressLodine
Model check result
Model favoriteB8 Esports · 54%
Series resultB8 Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2