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DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
REKONIXloss 0:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Nemesiswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

REKONIX

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Varizh · 17 games
71%
Tiny
Tiny
inYourdreaM · 15 games
40%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Fbz · 12 games
17%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
TraVins · 11 games
45%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Varizh · 9 games
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
inYourdreaM · 8 games
75%
Kez
Kezsignature
TraVins · 8 games
75%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
dalul · 7 games
43%

Team Nemesis

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mac · 14 games
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mac · 14 games
64%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Jhocam · 13 games
62%
Tusk
Tusk
Jhocam · 13 games
38%
Muerta
Muerta
Jhocam · 12 games
50%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Q · 12 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Jaunuel · 11 games
36%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Raven · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
632 picks · 696 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
511 picks · 451 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
483 picks · 388 bans
50%
Warlock
Warlock
431 picks · 288 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
406 picks · 349 bans
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
387 picks · 1070 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
382 picks · 802 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
379 picks · 560 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% Team Nemesis
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total53% Team Nemesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:44
REKONIX 47%Team Nemesis 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 56:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaTraVins
50% · 208 games48% · 202 games
Queen of PainMac
Queen of Pain
Pangolier
PangolierinYourdreaM
47% · 279 games49% · 57 games
Faceless Void23savage
Faceless Void
Marci
MarciFbz
50% · 244 games57% · 71 game
LargoJabz
Largo
Io
Iodalul
43% · 27 games58% · 155 games
PhoenixJaunuel
Phoenix
Lion
LionVarizh
47% · 111 games48% · 384 games
TuskQ
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct8:30
REKONIX 47%Team Nemesis 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 26:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackTraVins
54% · 249 games52% · 72 games
Slark23savage
Slark
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritinYourdreaM
46% · 335 games49% · 329 games
BeastmasterMac
Beastmaster
Tidehunter
TidehunterFbz
50% · 172 games45% · 292 games
PangolierJabz
Pangolier
Monkey King
Monkey Kingdalul
52% · 152 games52% · 215 games
WindrangerQ
Windranger
Dazzle
DazzleVarizh
52% · 122 games48% · 122 games
EnchantressJaunuel
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Nemesis · 53%
Series resultTeam Nemesis 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2