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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenloss 0:2
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Alliance.LATAMwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Thunder Awaken

Snapfire
Snapfire
Matthew · 16 games
44%
Tiny
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 16 games
63%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 15 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Sacred · 14 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Sacred · 13 games
69%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 13 games
46%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 11 games
55%
Dazzle
Dazzle
Panda · 10 games
40%

Alliance.LATAM

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
400 picks · 396 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
366 picks · 364 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
352 picks · 243 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
288 picks · 292 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
230 picks · 276 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
222 picks · 118 bans
49%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
206 picks · 147 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
194 picks · 536 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 40%
Hero pool strength52% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:32
Thunder Awaken 67%Alliance.LATAM 33%
The model gave 67% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Alliance.LATAM in 32:51.
Game 2prediction missed19:28
Thunder Awaken 67%Alliance.LATAM 33%
The model gave 67% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Alliance.LATAM in 38:53.
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 67%
Series resultAlliance.LATAM 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2