Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BETBOOM TEAMwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Tinysignature
Mira · 23 games
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 19 games
Rubicksignature
Mira · 16 games
Clockwerksignature
Miposhka · 13 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 13 games
Pangoliersignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 11 games
Razorsignature
Collapse · 11 games
BETBOOM TEAM
Death Prophetsignature
Nightfall · 9 games
Clockwerksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 7 games
Hoodwinksignature
Save- · 6 games
Linaoften banned
Pure~ · 5 games
Rubick
Save- · 5 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 5 games
Leshracoften banned
gpK~ · 4 games
Sniperoften banned
Pure~ · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
399 picks · 395 bans
Tiny
363 picks · 364 bans
Rubick
350 picks · 242 bans
Mirana
286 picks · 292 bans
Treant Protector
229 picks · 274 bans
Snapfire
222 picks · 115 bans
Crystal Maiden
206 picks · 147 bans
Ember Spirit
194 picks · 534 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)83% vs 80%
Hero pool strength51% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total61% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:28
Team Spirit 54%BETBOOM TEAM 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 54:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaYatoro
LinaPure~
ZeusLarl
BeastmasterNightfall
EnigmaCollapse
TinygpK~
ClockwerkMira
PugnaSave-
LichMiposhka
Treant ProtectorTORONTOTOKYO
Game 2prediction correct30:15
Team Spirit 56%BETBOOM TEAM 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 34:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeYatoro
Monkey KingPure~
Nature's ProphetCollapse
BeastmasterNightfall
Keeper of the LightLarl
TinygpK~
RubickMira
Death ProphetSave-
TuskMiposhka
MiranaTORONTOTOKYO
Game 3prediction missed19:32
Team Spirit 56%BETBOOM TEAM 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 40:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetYatoro
MorphlingPure~
DoomCollapse
PuckgpK~
PangolierLarl
Death ProphetNightfall
RubickMiposhka
MiranaTORONTOTOKYO
HoodwinkMira
TinySave-
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 61%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3