European Pro League Season 6 · BO5
result vs prediction
X3loss 1:3series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:3
PSG Questwin 3:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
X3
Pangoliersignature
NattyNarwhal · 20 games
Marcioften banned
velheor · 19 games
Tinysignature
velheor · 18 games
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 15 games
Tusk
NattyNarwhal · 15 games
Hoodwink
alone · 14 games
Beastmastersignature
Shergarat · 13 games
Morphlingsignature
nesfeer · 13 games
PSG Quest
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 9 games
Tinyoften banned
OmaR · 6 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Wuiter · 4 games
Doomoften banned
Wuiter · 4 games
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 4 games
Phoenix
Kaori · 4 games
Tusk
OmaR · 4 games
Hoodwink
OmaR · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
398 picks · 393 bans
Tiny
360 picks · 363 bans
Rubick
348 picks · 240 bans
Mirana
285 picks · 292 bans
Treant Protector
228 picks · 271 bans
Snapfire
220 picks · 115 bans
Crystal Maiden
206 picks · 147 bans
Ember Spirit
193 picks · 531 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 79%
Hero pool strength51% PSG Quest
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total57% X3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:30
X3 54%PSG Quest 46%
The model gave 54% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 49:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Linanesfeer
TerrorbladeTA2000
Ember SpiritNattyNarwhal
SnapfireNo!ob
Clockwerkdark
Centaur WarrunnerWuiter
Death ProphetShergarat
HoodwinkOmaR
Tuskalone
SilencerKaori
Game 2prediction missed9:29
X3 52%PSG Quest 48%
The model gave 52% on X3 — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 26:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladenesfeer
LeshracNo!ob
BatriderNattyNarwhal
MorphlingTA2000
EnigmaShergarat
TidehunterWuiter
Tinyalone
Treant ProtectorKaori
Rubickdark
RikiOmaR
Game 3prediction missed7:32
X3 54%PSG Quest 46%
The model gave 54% on X3 — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 26:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Linanesfeer
Nature's ProphetTA2000
BeastmasterShergarat
TinyNo!ob
PangolierNattyNarwhal
Night StalkerWuiter
Snapfirealone
Skywrath MageOmaR
Marcidark
ClockwerkKaori
Game 4prediction missed19:38
X3 53%PSG Quest 47%
The model gave 53% on X3 — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 43:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphlingnesfeer
Naga SirenTA2000
Death ProphetNattyNarwhal
BatriderNo!ob
BeastmasterShergarat
TidehunterWuiter
Miranadark
RubickOmaR
Tinyalone
ClockwerkKaori
Model check result
Model favoriteX3 · 57%
Series resultPSG Quest 1:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 4