Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Thiuth Gamingloss 0:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
B8 Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Thiuth Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
B8 Esports
Snapfire
Alexxo · 17 games
Marcioften banned
Alexxo · 11 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Sammyboy · 9 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
YamSun · 9 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Alexxo · 8 games
Chen
Sammyboy · 6 games
Luna
YamSun · 6 games
Rubick
MoOz · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
402 picks · 391 bans
Tiny
362 picks · 360 bans
Rubick
345 picks · 237 bans
Mirana
287 picks · 291 bans
Treant Protector
224 picks · 271 bans
Snapfire
217 picks · 116 bans
Crystal Maiden
210 picks · 148 bans
Ember Spirit
194 picks · 529 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 22%
Hero pool strength54% Thiuth Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Thiuth Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed50:12
Thiuth Gaming 55%B8 Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Thiuth Gaming — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 27:22.
Game 2prediction missed46:4
Thiuth Gaming 55%B8 Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Thiuth Gaming — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 23:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteThiuth Gaming · 55%
Series resultB8 Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2