Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard Gamingloss 0:2series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:2
nounswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Wildcard Gaming
Snapfiresignature
Sammyboy · 10 games
Rubick
Alexxo · 9 games
Tinysignature
Babitich · 8 games
Clockwerk
Chen · 7 games
Treant Protectorsignature
FrancisLee · 7 games
Doomoften banned
Sunlight · 6 games
Batrideroften banned
iAnnihilate · 5 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Ark · 5 games
nouns
Tusk
Gunnar · 13 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Moo · 9 games
Rubicksignature
Lelis · 9 games
Tinysignature
ZfreeK · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Gunnar · 7 games
Death Prophetsignature
Husky · 6 games
Miranasignature
ZfreeK · 6 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Costabile · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
402 picks · 389 bans
Tiny
360 picks · 360 bans
Rubick
344 picks · 236 bans
Mirana
286 picks · 291 bans
Treant Protector
223 picks · 270 bans
Snapfire
216 picks · 115 bans
Crystal Maiden
210 picks · 148 bans
Ember Spirit
193 picks · 528 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% nouns
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total64% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:29
Wildcard Gaming 44%nouns 56%
The model gave 56% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 56:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaArk
Nature's ProphetMoo
LycanSunlight
TinyGunnar
Primal BeastBabitich
WeaverYamSun
SnapfireFrancisLee
Treant ProtectorLelis
ClockwerkSammyboy
SilencerHusky
Game 2prediction correct14:28
Wildcard Gaming 43%nouns 57%
The model gave 57% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 41:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaArk
Lone DruidGunnar
Ember SpiritBabitich
Nature's ProphetMoo
LycanSunlight
KunkkaYamSun
MiranaFrancisLee
RubickLelis
TinySammyboy
RikiHusky
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 64%
Series resultnouns 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2