Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
HellRaiserswin 2:1series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Darksideloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Darkside
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
399 picks · 388 bans
Tiny
357 picks · 359 bans
Rubick
342 picks · 234 bans
Mirana
285 picks · 291 bans
Treant Protector
220 picks · 270 bans
Snapfire
216 picks · 115 bans
Crystal Maiden
209 picks · 148 bans
Ember Spirit
191 picks · 525 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% HellRaisers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:39
HellRaisers 68%Darkside 32%
The model gave 68% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Darkside in 51:49.
Game 2prediction missed23:3
HellRaisers 68%Darkside 32%
The model gave 68% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Darkside in 16:58.
Game 3prediction missed10:38
HellRaisers 68%Darkside 32%
The model gave 68% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Darkside in 30:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 68%
Series resultHellRaisers 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3