?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 0:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Virtus.prowin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
swedenstrong · 14 games
57%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
swedenstrong · 12 games
17%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Solo · 10 games
50%
Visage
Visagesignature
laise · 10 games
60%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangersignature
V-Tune · 9 games
78%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
swedenstrong · 9 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
swedenstrong · 8 games
13%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
laise · 8 games
50%

Virtus.pro

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
yamich · 20 games
40%
Marci
Marcisignature
yamich · 14 games
86%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Xakoda · 13 games
62%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 13 games
62%
Lina
Linasignature
gpK~ · 13 games
69%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Xakoda · 13 games
54%
Doom
Doomoften banned
DM · 12 games
50%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Xakoda · 12 games
42%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
398 picks · 387 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
357 picks · 357 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
341 picks · 232 bans
57%
Mirana
Mirana
286 picks · 291 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
218 picks · 269 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
216 picks · 112 bans
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
209 picks · 149 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
190 picks · 525 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 47%
Hero pool strength53% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total61% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:26
Natus Vincere 43%Virtus.pro 57%
The model gave 57% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 28:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaV-Tune
49% · 109 games49% · 160 games
LeshracSquad1x
Leshrac
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakerlaise
49% · 179 games54% · 141 game
Nature's Prophetkrylat
Nature's Prophet
Primal Beast
Primal Beastnicky`cool
50% · 126 games48% · 239 games
Death ProphetNoticed
Death Prophet
Rubick
Rubickswedenstrong
46% · 271 game50% · 210 games
Hoodwinksayuw
Hoodwink
Snapfire
SnapfireMalady
50% · 317 games55% · 252 games
ClockwerkDukalis
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct17:41
Natus Vincere 46%Virtus.pro 54%
The model gave 54% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 47:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerV-Tune
48% · 42 games47% · 61 game
Nature's ProphetNoticed
Nature's Prophet
Lycan
Lycanlaise
55% · 70 games52% · 94 games
Keeper of the LightSquad1x
Keeper of the Light
Leshrac
Leshracnicky`cool
51% · 108 games47% · 64 games
Pudgekrylat
Pudge
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
48% · 170 games48% · 104 games
Crystal MaidenDukalis
Crystal Maiden
Sven
SvenMalady
53% · 59 games51% · 126 games
Clockwerksayuw
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 61%
Series resultVirtus.pro 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2