European Pro League Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
D2 Hustlersloss 1:2series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Sexywin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
D2 Hustlers
No games played over 6 months.
Team Sexy
Rikioften banned
9Class · 2 games
Huskaroften banned
Moonlight · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
Moonlight · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
7jesu · 1 game
Razoroften banned
Nefrit · 1 game
Tinyoften banned
9Class · 1 game
Vengeful Spirit
Nefrit · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
398 picks · 387 bans
Tiny
357 picks · 357 bans
Rubick
341 picks · 232 bans
Mirana
286 picks · 291 bans
Treant Protector
218 picks · 269 bans
Snapfire
216 picks · 112 bans
Crystal Maiden
209 picks · 149 bans
Ember Spirit
190 picks · 525 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 63%
Hero pool strength60% Team Sexy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% D2 Hustlers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
D2 Hustlers 60%Team Sexy 40%
The model gave 60% on D2 Hustlers — the game was taken by D2 Hustlers.
Game 2prediction missed
D2 Hustlers 60%Team Sexy 40%
The model gave 60% on D2 Hustlers — the game was taken by Team Sexy.
Game 3prediction missed
D2 Hustlers 60%Team Sexy 40%
The model gave 60% on D2 Hustlers — the game was taken by Team Sexy.
Model check result
Model favoriteD2 Hustlers · 60%
Series resultTeam Sexy 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3