Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard Gamingwin 2:0series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LBLucky Birdloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Wildcard Gaming
Rubick
Alexxo · 9 games
Snapfiresignature
FrancisLee · 8 games
Clockwerk
Chen · 7 games
Tinysignature
Babitich · 7 games
Batrideroften banned
iAnnihilate · 6 games
Doomoften banned
Boris · 6 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Sammyboy · 5 games
Tusk
Adzantick · 5 games
Lucky Bird
Bloodseekeroften banned
Rises · 7 games
Clockwerk
FrancisLee · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
BlackSoul · 6 games
Tinyoften banned
BlackSoul · 6 games
Puckoften banned
BlackSoul · 5 games
Snapfire
Wij · 5 games
Ursaoften banned
Rises · 5 games
Hoodwink
Wij · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
397 picks · 384 bans
Tiny
356 picks · 356 bans
Rubick
338 picks · 230 bans
Mirana
286 picks · 291 bans
Snapfire
214 picks · 112 bans
Treant Protector
213 picks · 269 bans
Crystal Maiden
209 picks · 148 bans
Pangolier
191 picks · 529 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 25%
Hero pool strength61% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total72% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:12
Wildcard Gaming 64%Lucky Bird 36%
The model gave 64% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 32:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeArk
InvokerBlackSoul
VisageSunlight
Faceless VoidRises
TinyBabitich
TuskPamplona
Treant ProtectorFrancisLee
SilencerYadomi
SnapfireSammyboy
Game 2prediction correct21:12
Wildcard Gaming 65%Lucky Bird 35%
The model gave 65% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 27:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenArk
BloodseekerRises
Death ProphetSunlight
MarsBlackSoul
Storm SpiritBabitich
PhoenixYadomi
Treant ProtectorFrancisLee
HoodwinkPamplona
SnapfireSammyboy
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 72%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2