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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:1
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
OGloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Boxi · 21 game
43%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 20 games
80%
Marci
Marcisignature
Boxi · 17 games
65%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
MATUMBAMAN · 15 games
73%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
iNSaNiA · 15 games
60%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
zai · 14 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
miCKe · 14 games
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
miCKe · 14 games
79%

OG

Razor
Razoroften banned
ATF · 19 games
58%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Ceb · 18 games
61%
Puck
Pucksignature
bzm · 15 games
60%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Taiga · 13 games
77%
Chen
Chensignature
Taiga · 11 games
91%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
bzm · 11 games
64%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 11 games
73%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Misha · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
393 picks · 380 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
351 picks · 354 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
329 picks · 227 bans
57%
Mirana
Mirana
285 picks · 287 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
209 picks · 111 bans
49%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
208 picks · 148 bans
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
206 picks · 264 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
190 picks · 521 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% Team Liquid
Head-to-head5 – 3
Model total65% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:38
Team Liquid 58%OG 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 1:07:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerNisha
46% · 163 games55% · 52 games
SniperYuragi
Sniper
Weaver
WeavermiCKe
44% · 156 games53% · 107 games
Batriderbzm
Batrider
Enigma
Enigmazai
50% · 167 games45% · 249 games
Death ProphetDM
Death Prophet
Mirana
MiranaiNSaNiA
54% · 274 games53% · 367 games
TinyTaiga
Tiny
Riki
RikiBoxi
55% · 44 games43% · 29 games
OmniknightMisha
Omniknight
Game 2prediction missed18:30
Team Liquid 59%OG 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by OG in 36:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingmiCKe
47% · 185 games49% · 231 game
LinaYuragi
Lina
Tusk
TuskNisha
51% · 270 games52% · 174 games
TimbersawDM
Timbersaw
Magnus
Magnuszai
43% · 39 games50% · 294 games
Pangolierbzm
Pangolier
Hoodwink
HoodwinkBoxi
51% · 211 games55% · 215 games
Treant ProtectorMisha
Treant Protector
Rubick
RubickiNSaNiA
52% · 275 games49% · 66 games
Dark WillowTaiga
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction correct28:15
Team Liquid 58%OG 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 37:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendNisha
48% · 79 games59% · 88 games
Naga SirenYuragi
Naga Siren
Pudge
PudgemiCKe
50% · 68 games54% · 101 game
Invokerbzm
Invoker
Beastmaster
Beastmasterzai
49% · 169 games46% · 212 games
Death ProphetDM
Death Prophet
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaideniNSaNiA
43% · 136 games57% · 118 games
DisruptorMisha
Disruptor
Rubick
RubickBoxi
45% · 225 games50% · 158 games
Treant ProtectorTaiga
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 65%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3