European Pro League Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
D2 Hustlersloss 0:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
X3win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
D2 Hustlers
No games played over 6 months.
X3
Pangoliersignature
NattyNarwhal · 20 games
Marcioften banned
velheor · 19 games
Tinyoften banned
velheor · 17 games
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 15 games
Tusk
NattyNarwhal · 14 games
Morphlingsignature
nesfeer · 13 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Shergarat · 12 games
Linaoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
391 picks · 379 bans
Tiny
347 picks · 354 bans
Rubick
324 picks · 227 bans
Mirana
284 picks · 282 bans
Snapfire
208 picks · 111 bans
Crystal Maiden
206 picks · 148 bans
Treant Protector
202 picks · 261 bans
Pangolier
190 picks · 520 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 58%
Hero pool strength53% X3
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% X3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:46
D2 Hustlers 46%X3 54%
The model gave 54% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 43:39.
Game 2prediction correct39:50
D2 Hustlers 46%X3 54%
The model gave 54% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 1:03:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteX3 · 54%
Series resultX3 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2