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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Blacklist Internationalwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Mars
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 26 games
46%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Tims · 22 games
36%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Fbz · 19 games
53%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Yopaj · 17 games
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Tims · 15 games
40%
Rubick
Rubick
Tims · 14 games
36%
Chen
Chensignature
Skem · 12 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
Tims · 12 games
50%

Blacklist International

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
389 picks · 378 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
345 picks · 353 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
323 picks · 227 bans
57%
Mirana
Mirana
282 picks · 282 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
207 picks · 111 bans
49%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
206 picks · 148 bans
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
199 picks · 261 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
190 picks · 518 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% Blacklist International
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:13
BOOM Esports 70%Blacklist International 30%
The model gave 70% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 42:02.
Game 2prediction missed11:19
BOOM Esports 70%Blacklist International 30%
The model gave 70% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 31:10.
Game 3prediction missed17:24
BOOM Esports 70%Blacklist International 30%
The model gave 70% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 39:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 70%
Series resultBlacklist International 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3