European Pro League Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Monaspawin 2:1series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Water Rune Enjoyersloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
Water Rune Enjoyers
Tinyoften banned
Stojkov · 15 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Mary_y · 12 games
Enigmasignature
BliNcc · 9 games
Hoodwinkoften banned
y0nd · 9 games
Marcioften banned
Nukkumatti · 9 games
Razoroften banned
BliNcc · 9 games
Rubick
y0nd · 9 games
Snapfire
Mary_y · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
387 picks · 376 bans
Tiny
342 picks · 348 bans
Rubick
318 picks · 225 bans
Mirana
276 picks · 280 bans
Crystal Maiden
203 picks · 148 bans
Snapfire
202 picks · 109 bans
Treant Protector
199 picks · 255 bans
Pangolier
189 picks · 513 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 41%
Hero pool strength50% Water Rune Enjoyers
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total77% Monaspa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Monaspa 77%Water Rune Enjoyers 23%
The model gave 77% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Monaspa.
Game 2prediction missed
Monaspa 77%Water Rune Enjoyers 23%
The model gave 77% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Water Rune Enjoyers.
Game 3prediction correct
Monaspa 77%Water Rune Enjoyers 23%
The model gave 77% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Monaspa.
Model check result
Model favoriteMonaspa · 77%
Series resultMonaspa 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3