Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nemiga Gaming
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Corrupted · 10 games
Tusksignature
Malr1ne · 10 games
Rubicksignature
Hellscream · 9 games
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 8 games
Phoenix
Hellscream · 8 games
Silencersignature
so bad · 8 games
Timbersawsignature
Malr1ne · 8 games
Zeussignature
Hellscream · 8 games
BETBOOM TEAM
Death Prophetsignature
Nightfall · 9 games
Clockwerksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 6 games
Hoodwinkoften banned
Save- · 5 games
Linaoften banned
Pure~ · 4 games
Rubick
Save- · 4 games
Sniperoften banned
Pure~ · 4 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 4 games
Dragon Knight
Nightfall · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
386 picks · 375 bans
Tiny
342 picks · 348 bans
Rubick
317 picks · 224 bans
Mirana
276 picks · 280 bans
Crystal Maiden
203 picks · 148 bans
Snapfire
201 picks · 109 bans
Treant Protector
197 picks · 255 bans
Pangolier
188 picks · 513 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 78%
Hero pool strength52% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total82% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:35
Nemiga Gaming 30%BETBOOM TEAM 70%
The model gave 70% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 43:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightKiritych
LinaPure~
Nature's ProphetCorrupted
DawnbreakerNightfall
PangolierMalr1ne
Outworld DestroyergpK~
Undyingso bad
HoodwinkSave-
Treant ProtectorHellscream
ClockwerkTORONTOTOKYO
Game 2prediction correct8:34
Nemiga Gaming 30%BETBOOM TEAM 70%
The model gave 70% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 24:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomCorrupted
LeshracgpK~
LinaKiritych
Primal BeastNightfall
TuskMalr1ne
SpectrePure~
SnapfireHellscream
RubickSave-
Shadow Demonso bad
Treant ProtectorTORONTOTOKYO
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 82%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2